Due to the avian flu, egg prices have increased 304% since January 2020.

Did we think egg prices were high last year? Unfortunately, it has only gotten worse. Egg prices are on the rise, once again, with consumers paying an average of almost $6 per dozen, a record high and double the price from about a year ago. An outbreak of avian flu has upended the industry, leading to supply shortages that have pushed prices up 304% since January 2020. Seasonal demand is increasing prices further as stores stock up for Easter and holiday baking.

Eggs aren’t the only item in the higher-price basket. Many grocery staples have prices far outpacing average inflation and wage growth this decade, a result of factors like supply disruptions, more extreme weather patterns and higher input costs. For instance, sticker-shock might result from pairing those eggs with a cup of coffee at breakfast. Weather issues in top coffee bean producing regions like South America contributed to difficult growing seasons and increased coffee bean prices. Sugar production has faced similar weather-related disruptions. Unfortunately, relief does not come from meals later in the day. Increases in average ground beef, bread and rice prices have almost doubled the rate of inflation over the past five years. Many shoppers are left wondering when they will catch a break.

To put food price inflation in broader context, the food category has added a steady 0.3 percentage points per month to the annual consumer price index (CPI) inflation over the past 12 months. While overall inflation steadily declined in 2024, helped by falling goods and energy prices, it’s been more stubborn in recent months. Inflation rose 2.8% year-over-year in February, down just slightly from January's 3% pace and faster than September's 2.4%. Sticky services price inflation, which makes up a substantial 64% weight of the overall index, remains elevated despite cooling slightly. Goods and energy prices have not been a significant source of inflation recently, but that could reverse with a potential ratcheting up of tariffs.

The recent increase in inflation, among other factors like uncertainty around the impact of potential changes in trade and immigration policy, led the Federal Reserve (Fed) to press pause on rate cuts at its January meeting. At the meeting, the policy rate target range was left steady at 4.25% to 4.5% after being lowered 100 basis points (bps) since September. By the time of Fed Chair Powell’s appearances on Capitol Hill for the semi-annual report on monetary policy in midFebruary, Fed guidance became more explicit: "With our policy stance now significantly less restrictive than it had been and the economy remaining strong, we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance." This suggests that, while the Fed is leaning toward a lower policy rate and momentum may carry them forward, action is tabled for later in the year. Fed policy can’t directly influence the price of eggs, which may not come down until the industry’s supply issues are resolved. Interest rates and the price of eggs could both be higher for longer. In short, consumers may want to consider an alternative to dying eggs this Easter.